Water FractalTier 1
at PTM 店家冠軍賽 貓腳印-高雄店
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suspicious Concoction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |